Heat Pump Payback in Lincoln, NE
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Lincoln, NE
In Lincoln, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. The heat pump would cost about $21 more a year to run than the furnace it replaces, a premium with no payback. That's Lincoln's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.
Checking a different city
Lincoln is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Lincoln's weather, in the numbers that matter
Lincoln has a real but manageable winter, 4875 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 1359 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: -17°F here (coldest 2024 reading -18°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.3 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Lincoln needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from Lincoln Municipal Airport, the closest NOAA station, 4.7 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 5,367 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $822 a year. Lincoln's gas rate of $11.40 per Mcf, applied to the 51 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $801 a year, against 12.59¢ per kWh for electricity. Because the heat pump costs more to run here, the gap only widens with time: $5,816 behind after 15 years compared with replacing the furnace and AC like-for-like.
How sensitive Lincoln's result is to prices
For the verdict in Lincoln to flip, electricity would need to drop to about 12.1¢/kWh from 12.59¢, or gas climb past $11.81 per Mcf from $11.40. A utility offering a lower heat pump rate can change this. Until then, no quote price makes a heat pump pay back against gas in Lincoln; the case for one here rests on comfort, cooling, or replacing electric heat instead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Gas isn't universal in Lincoln, many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat, baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance, the case for switching gets stronger here. About $954 a year comes back this way, enough that the 10.5-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Lincoln ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Lincoln comes in at 877 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 72 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step if you live in Lincoln
Lincoln, Nebraska is home to about 300,619 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Lincoln, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Lincoln's 2.3 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Lincoln's -17°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.