Heat Pump Payback in Kilgore, TX
Will a heat pump pay off in Kilgore, TX?
Kilgore technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Kilgore's residents would see roughly $320 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 17.2 years. Kilgore's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Compare against another city
Landed on Kilgore by mistake, or want to compare it against somewhere else? Search the other 3206 cities below.
The climate behind Kilgore's payback figure
Degree days tell the story here: Kilgore racks up 1656 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 2742 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 21°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 10.9°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.2 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 21°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Kilgore. Source: NOAA station East Texas Regional Airport, 8.7 miles from Kilgore, the closest one on record.
Kilgore's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,310 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $589 a year. That compares with roughly 17 Mcf a year of gas at Kilgore's $19.42 per-Mcf rate, about $909 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $705 behind.
What would change Kilgore's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 353.8¢/kWh (it is 16.15¢ now) or gas drops below $0.89 per Mcf (now $19.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Kilgore. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $320 a year saved, a difference under $2,240 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,200 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Kilgore, compared
Gas isn't universal in Kilgore, many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Kilgore's answer improves. Even against resistance heat, the running-cost gap here isn't enough to clear the $10,000 incremental cost within the equipment's 15-year life.
Where Kilgore ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Kilgore comes in at 2621 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 2576 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Kilgore
About 13,583 people live in Kilgore, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Kilgore's 3.2 seasonal COP and payback figure. Kilgore's 21°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.