Heat Pump Payback in Kerrville, TX
Is a heat pump worth it in Kerrville?
Kerrville technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Kerrville's residents would see roughly $320 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 17.2 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Kerrville.
Checking a different city
Kerrville is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Kerrville's weather, in the numbers that matter
Degree days tell the story here: Kerrville racks up 1557 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, with 2807 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 23°F here (coldest 2024 reading 12.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.25 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Mild on average, but the occasional cold snap is what sizes the equipment: at a 23°F design temperature Kerrville falls just under the 25°F line where a standard heat pump starts leaning on resistance backup, so the model prices a cold-climate unit to be safe. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Krvl Muni/Luis Shrer Fd AP, 4.8 miles from Kerrville.
Kerrville's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,213 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $582 a year. That compares with roughly 16 Mcf a year of gas at Kerrville's $19.42 per-Mcf rate, about $902 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $700 behind.
What would change Kerrville's answer
In Kerrville the cooling savings outweigh the extra electricity for heating, so no plausible change in the electricity rate would make the old furnace and AC cheaper to run. A useful quote test for Kerrville: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,200 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,240.
Electric resistance heat in Kerrville, compared
Gas isn't universal in Kerrville, many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Kerrville's answer improves. The gap still doesn't close: the $10,000 incremental cost outlasts the 15-year equipment life here even against resistance heat.
Where Kerrville ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Kerrville's winter puts it at rank 2666 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1596 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Kerrville
Kerrville, Texas is home to about 25,141 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Kerrville, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Kerrville's 3.25 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. At a 23°F design temperature, Kerrville sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.