Heat Pump Payback in Kennewick, WA
Should Kennewick switch to a heat pump?
The payback math works in Kennewick on paper, past the equipment's own working life. $5,500 is what Kennewick would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Kennewick's residents would see roughly $308 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 17.8 years. Kennewick's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Checking a different city
Kennewick is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
Why Kennewick's climate drives this number
4567 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Kennewick has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 1113 cooling degree days, where summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 1.9°F here (coldest 2024 reading 1.9°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.75 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Kennewick needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from Tri-Cities Airport, the closest NOAA station, 5.6 miles out.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 4,205 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $735 a year. That compares with roughly 48 Mcf a year of gas at Kennewick's $17.62 per-Mcf rate, about $1,044 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 14.27¢/kWh. Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $874 behind.
How sensitive Kennewick's result is to prices
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 22.6¢/kWh (it is 14.27¢ now) or gas drops below $11.14 per Mcf (now $17.62); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Kennewick. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $308 a year saved, a difference under $2,156 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,080 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Kennewick, compared
Plenty of homes in Kennewick heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,121 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 8.9 years.
Where Kennewick ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Kennewick comes in at 1119 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 415 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
What to do with this number in Kennewick
About 86,728 people live in Kennewick, Washington, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Kennewick's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page, the 2.75 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. At a 1.9°F design temperature, Kennewick sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.