Heat Pump Payback in Keller, TX
Is a heat pump worth it in Keller?
In Keller, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. $5,500 is what Keller would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Keller's residents would see roughly $361 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 15.2 years. Keller's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Compare against another city
Landed on Keller by mistake, or want to compare it against somewhere else? Search the other 3206 cities below.
Why Keller's climate drives this number
1801 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Keller has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 3262 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 17.1°F here (coldest 2024 reading 10°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.11 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 17.1°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Keller. These numbers come from Fort Worth Alliance Airport, the closest NOAA station, 6.1 miles out.
The yearly running costs in Keller
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,466 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $686 a year. Keller's gas rate of $19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 19 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $1,047 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $85 behind.
How sensitive Keller's result is to prices
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 1813.1¢/kWh (it is 16.15¢ now) or gas drops below $0.17 per Mcf (now $19.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Keller. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $361 a year saved, a difference under $2,527 pays back within 7 years here, and under $3,610 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Keller, compared
Not every home in Keller has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Keller's answer improves. Switching saves about $733 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 13.6 years.
Where Keller ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Keller comes in at 2540 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 876 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Keller
About 46,643 people live in Keller, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page, the 3.11 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Keller's 17.1°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.