Is a heat pump worth it in Keller?
In Keller, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. $3,500 is what Keller would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Keller's residents would see roughly $361 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 9.7 years. Whether that's worth it in Keller depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
Why Keller's climate drives this number
1801 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Keller has a mild winter by US standards; the cooling side runs to 3262 cooling degree days, where summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 17.1°F here (record low 10°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.11 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Keller needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from FORT WORTH ALLIANCE ARPT, the closest NOAA station, 6.1 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Keller
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 1,466 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $686 a year. Keller's gas rate of 19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 19 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $1,047 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 37.4 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,915 ahead.
Electric resistance heat in Keller, compared
Not every home in Keller has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Keller's answer improves. Switching saves about $733 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 10.9 years.
Where Keller ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Keller comes in at 2540 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 876 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 46,643 people in Keller
About 46,643 people live in Keller, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 3.11 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Keller's 17.1°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.