Is a heat pump worth it in Jacksonville?

In Jacksonville, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). That premium is recovered through $226 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 15.5 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Jacksonville.

Jacksonville's weather, in the numbers that matter

Jacksonville has a mild winter by US standards — 2033 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 1834 cooling degree days. 19°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 18°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.16 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Jacksonville needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. These numbers come from JACKSONVILLE, the closest NOAA station, 3 miles out.

What it actually costs to run, year to year

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,629 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $477 a year. Jacksonville's gas rate of 16.42 per Mcf, applied to the 21 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $703 a year, against 14.93¢ per kWh for electricity. Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to 59.8 years; over 15 years the net position sits $112 behind.

The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with

Not every home in Jacksonville has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Jacksonville's answer improves. The saving here runs about $647 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 12.4 years.

Jacksonville against the rest of the country

Jacksonville lands at position 2419 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 544 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.

What to do with this number in Jacksonville

Jacksonville, North Carolina is home to about 70,840 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Jacksonville, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.

Reading further on this page's numbers

The methodology guide walks through exactly how Jacksonville's 3.16 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. At a 19°F design temperature, Jacksonville sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.