Heat Pump Payback in Henderson, TX
Is a heat pump worth it in Henderson?
In Henderson, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. That premium is recovered through $312 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 17.6 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Henderson.
Checking a different city
Henderson is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
How cold Henderson actually gets
Henderson barely has a winter to speak of, 1060 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3212 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 23.7°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 13.6°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.27 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Mild on average, but the occasional cold snap is what sizes the equipment: at a 23.7°F design temperature Henderson falls just under the 25°F line where a standard heat pump starts leaning on resistance backup, so the model prices a cold-climate unit to be safe. These numbers come from Rusk County Airport, the closest NOAA station, 3.2 miles out.
The yearly running costs in Henderson
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 821 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $575 a year. Henderson's gas rate of $19.42 per Mcf, applied to the 11 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $887 a year, against 16.15¢ per kWh for electricity. Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $823 behind.
What would change Henderson's answer
In Henderson the cooling savings outweigh the extra electricity for heating, so no plausible change in the electricity rate would make the old furnace and AC cheaper to run. A useful quote test for Henderson: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,120 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,184.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Henderson heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The gap still doesn't close: the $10,000 incremental cost outlasts the 15-year equipment life here even against resistance heat.
Where Henderson ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Henderson's winter puts it at rank 2866 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2586 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Henderson
Henderson, Texas is home to about 13,485 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Henderson, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Where Henderson's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Henderson's 3.27 seasonal COP and payback figure. Henderson's 23.7°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.