Will a heat pump pay off in Henderson, KY?
The payback math works in Henderson on paper, past the equipment's own working life. $3,500 is what Henderson would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. That premium is recovered through $146 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 23.9 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Henderson.
How cold Henderson actually gets
3662 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Henderson has a real but manageable winter; the cooling side runs to 1391 cooling degree days, where summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating. 1.9°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of 0°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 2.75 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Henderson — below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. Source: NOAA station HENDERSON CITY-COUNTY ARPT, 6.2 miles from Henderson — the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,372 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $656 a year. Henderson's gas rate of 14.23 per Mcf, applied to the 38 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $802 a year, against 14.39¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 92.3 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,306 behind.
Electric resistance heat in Henderson, compared
Gas isn't universal in Henderson — many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $938 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 8.5 years.
Where Henderson ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Henderson's winter puts it at rank 1707 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1442 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step for 27,750 people in Henderson
Henderson, Kentucky is home to about 27,750 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Henderson, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Henderson's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Henderson's 2.75 seasonal COP and payback figure. Henderson's 1.9°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.