Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Festus, MO
Festus technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. $3,500 is what Festus would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Festus's residents would see roughly $232 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 15.1 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Festus.
Festus's weather, in the numbers that matter
Degree days tell the story here: Festus racks up 3639 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1688 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 1.9°F here (record low -5.1°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.75 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Festus sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. Source: NOAA station ST LOUIS DOWNTOWN AIRPORT, 27.9 miles from Festus — the closest one on record.
Festus's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,351 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $615 a year. Festus's gas rate of 14.94 per Mcf, applied to the 38 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $847 a year, against 12.83¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 58.1 years, for a 15-year net position $15 behind.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Gas isn't universal in Festus — many houses run on electric heat already. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Festus's answer improves. About $848 a year comes back this way, enough that the 9.4-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Festus ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Festus comes in at 1718 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 2554 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Deciding what's next in Festus, MO
Festus, Missouri is home to about 13,730 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Festus, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
More on how this number was built
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Festus's 2.75 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. At a 1.9°F design temperature, Festus sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.