Evanston, WY: the heat pump payback math
In Evanston, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. The heat pump would cost about $2 more a year to run than the furnace it replaces — a premium with no payback. That's Evanston's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.
Evanston's weather, in the numbers that matter
7529 heating degree days pile up here every year, so Evanston has one of the harshest winters in the country; the cooling side runs to 400 cooling degree days, where summers add a moderate cooling load. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 1.9°F, against a record low of 1.9°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.75 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Evanston needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station EVAN-UINTA CO BURNS FLD AP, 3.6 miles from Evanston — the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 6,933 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $994 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 78 Mcf a year at 11.74 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $991 a year (electricity here runs 13.66¢/kWh). Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is longer than the 15-year equipment life, leaving the 15-year total $3,533 behind.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Gas isn't universal in Evanston — many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,681 a year, which recovers the extra $8,000 spent going electric in roughly 4.8 years.
How Evanston compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, Evanston's winter puts it at rank 26 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2863 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step for 11,691 people in Evanston
Evanston, Wyoming is home to about 11,691 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Evanston, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Evanston's 2.75 seasonal COP and payback figure. At a 1.9°F design temperature, Evanston sits in cold-climate territory; the guide to that class of unit explains why.