Heat Pump Payback in Erie, CO
Erie, CO: the heat pump payback math
In Erie, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Running costs here land $195 a year higher than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. There's no spin on that: Erie's numbers say wait.
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Why Erie's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Erie racks up 5528 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers add a moderate cooling load, with 852 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: -5.4°F here (coldest 2024 reading -20.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.57 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Erie, below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Erie Municipal Airport, 1.7 miles from Erie.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 5,447 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,020 a year. Erie's gas rate of $11.17 per Mcf, applied to the 58 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $826 a year, against 16.53¢ per kWh for electricity. With running costs higher every year, there is no payback at any purchase price; over 15 years, against a like-for-like replacement, a household here would end $8,422 behind.
What would change Erie's answer
The heat pump would become the cheaper option in Erie if electricity fell to 12.7¢/kWh (from 16.53¢) or gas rose above $14.55 per Mcf (from $11.17). At today's prices a cheaper quote cannot rescue the gas comparison in Erie, since there is no yearly saving to recover it from.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Erie has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $1,476 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 6.8 years.
Where Erie ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Erie comes in at 352 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 1072 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step if you live in Erie
About 38,594 people live in Erie, Colorado, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Erie's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page, the 2.57 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Erie's -5.4°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.