Erie, CO: the heat pump payback math
In Erie, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. Running costs here land $195 a year HIGHER than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. There's no spin on that: Erie's numbers say wait.
Why Erie's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Erie racks up 5528 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers add a moderate cooling load, with 852 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: -5.4°F here (record low -20.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.57 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Erie — below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, ERIE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, 1.7 miles from Erie.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 5,447 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,020 a year. Erie's gas rate of 11.17 per Mcf, applied to the 58 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $826 a year, against 16.53¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is longer than the 15-year equipment life, leaving the 15-year total $6,422 behind.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Erie has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $1,476 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 5.4 years.
Where Erie ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Erie comes in at 352 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 1072 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Next step for 38,594 people in Erie
About 38,594 people live in Erie, Colorado, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Erie's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page — the 2.57 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Erie's -5.4°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.