Heat Pump Payback in Edwardsville, IL
Should Edwardsville switch to a heat pump?
Edwardsville is a place where a heat pump genuinely costs more to operate than the alternative. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Running costs here land $129 a year higher than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. There's no spin on that: Edwardsville's numbers say wait.
Compare against another city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Edwardsville. Look one up here.
Why Edwardsville's climate drives this number
Degree days tell the story here: Edwardsville racks up 4026 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 1319 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 1.2°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was -7.6°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.73 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Edwardsville sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from St Louis Regional Airport, the closest NOAA station, 7.2 miles out.
Edwardsville's running-cost comparison, in dollars
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,734 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $926 a year. Edwardsville's gas rate of $11.25 per Mcf, applied to the 42 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $798 a year, against 19.06¢ per kWh for electricity. With running costs higher every year, there is no payback at any purchase price; over 15 years, against a like-for-like replacement, a household here would end $7,429 behind.
The break-even point in Edwardsville
The heat pump would become the cheaper option in Edwardsville if electricity fell to 15.0¢/kWh (from 19.06¢) or gas rose above $14.32 per Mcf (from $11.25). At today's prices a cheaper quote cannot rescue the gas comparison in Edwardsville, since there is no yearly saving to recover it from.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Edwardsville heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Edwardsville's answer improves. The saving here runs about $1,343 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 7.4 years.
How Edwardsville compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, Edwardsville's winter puts it at rank 1487 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 1491 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
What to do with this number in Edwardsville
About 26,715 people live in Edwardsville, Illinois, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Edwardsville's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Edwardsville's 2.73 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Edwardsville's 1.2°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.