Heat Pump Payback in Des Moines, WA
Is a heat pump worth it in Des Moines?
In Des Moines, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. $5,500 is what Des Moines would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Lower bills claw that back: about $336 saved annually, for a payback of roughly 16.4 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Des Moines.
Compare against another city
Des Moines is one of 3206 cities covered here, each run through the same model. Search another below.
How cold Des Moines actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Des Moines racks up 4626 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers rarely ask much of an air conditioner, with 260 cooling degree days on the cooling side. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 19°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 15.1°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.16 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Below the 25°F line where a standard machine starts leaning on resistance backup, Des Moines sits firmly in cold-climate territory, so that's the class of unit priced here. These numbers come from Seattle-Tacoma International, the closest NOAA station, 3.8 miles out.
The yearly running costs in Des Moines
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 3,707 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $561 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 48 Mcf a year at $17.62 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $897 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 14.27¢/kWh). Buying outright rather than at replacement time stretches payback to longer than the 15-year equipment life. Over 15 years, compared with a like-for-like replacement, the heat pump leaves you $454 behind.
What would change Des Moines's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Des Moines if electricity rose past 23.6¢/kWh from 14.27¢, or gas fell under $10.64 per Mcf from $17.62. A useful quote test for Des Moines: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,360 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,352.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Gas isn't universal in Des Moines, many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat, baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance, the case for switching gets stronger here. Switching saves about $1,159 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 8.6 years.
Des Moines against the rest of the country
Des Moines lands at position 1065 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 1239 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
What to do with this number in Des Moines
Des Moines, Washington is home to about 33,207 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Des Moines, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Where Des Moines's figure comes from
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Des Moines's 3.16 seasonal COP and payback figure. Des Moines's 19°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.