Heat Pump Payback in Deming, NM
Should Deming switch to a heat pump?
Deming technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Deming's residents would see roughly $119 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 46.3 years. Deming's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
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The climate behind Deming's payback figure
Deming has a mild winter by US standards, 2638 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2425 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 19.9°F here (coldest 2024 reading 19°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.18 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 19.9°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Deming. These numbers come from Deming Municipal Airport, the closest NOAA station, 1.8 miles out.
The yearly running costs in Deming
Electricity use for heating alone comes out to about 2,101 kWh a year on the 2000-square-foot reference house; folding in cooling puts the electric bill near $615 a year. Deming's gas rate of $9.83 per Mcf, applied to the 27 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $734 a year, against 14.75¢ per kWh for electricity. Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $3,718 behind.
What would change Deming's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 26.3¢/kWh (it is 14.75¢ now) or gas drops below $5.51 per Mcf (now $9.83); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Deming. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $119 a year saved, a difference under $833 pays back within 7 years here, and under $1,190 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Deming, compared
Plenty of homes in Deming heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $834 a year here, a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils, so the extra $10,000 spent up front comes back in about 12 years.
How Deming compares nationally
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Deming comes in at 2074 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 2366 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Next step if you live in Deming
About 15,272 people live in Deming, New Mexico, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Deming's 3.18 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Deming's 19.9°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.