Heat Pump Payback in Burlington, WA
Is a heat pump worth it in Burlington?
In Burlington, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. That premium is recovered through $340 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 16.2 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Burlington.
Compare against another city
Landed on Burlington by mistake, or want to compare it against somewhere else? Search the other 3206 cities below.
Burlington's weather, in the numbers that matter
Burlington has a cold winter that leans hard on heating equipment, 5087 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers rarely ask much of an air conditioner, at 50 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 15.8°F here (coldest 2024 reading 10.4°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.08 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Burlington needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, Skagit Regional Airport, 4 miles from Burlington.
The yearly running costs in Burlington
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 4,182 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $603 a year on electricity. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 53 Mcf a year at $17.62 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $943 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 14.27¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $402 behind.
What would change Burlington's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Burlington if electricity rose past 22.4¢/kWh from 14.27¢, or gas fell under $11.20 per Mcf from $17.62. A useful quote test for Burlington: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,400 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,380.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Burlington has gas service. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. The saving here runs about $1,244 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 8 years.
Burlington against the rest of the country
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Burlington comes in at 606 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 2996 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
What to do with this number in Burlington
Burlington, Washington is home to about 10,945 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Burlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Every constant behind this page, the 3.08 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Burlington's 15.8°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.