Heat Pump Payback in Burlington, NJ
Should Burlington switch to a heat pump?
Burlington is a place where a heat pump genuinely costs more to operate than the alternative. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $5,500. Running costs here land $31 a year higher than the furnace it replaces, so that premium is never recovered. That's Burlington's own climate and rates talking, not a hedge or a caveat.
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Landed on Burlington by mistake, or want to compare it against somewhere else? Search the other 3206 cities below.
Burlington's weather, in the numbers that matter
Burlington has a real but manageable winter, 3959 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 1246 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 17.8°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 10.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.13 for the recommended cold-climate unit. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Burlington, below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. Source: NOAA station Burlington Del River, 1.5 miles from Burlington, the closest one on record.
The yearly running costs in Burlington
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 3,203 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $993 a year on electricity. That compares with roughly 41 Mcf a year of gas at Burlington's $14.21 per-Mcf rate, about $962 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 23.28¢/kWh. Because the heat pump costs more to run here, the gap only widens with time: $5,966 behind after 15 years compared with replacing the furnace and AC like-for-like.
How sensitive Burlington's result is to prices
For the verdict in Burlington to flip, electricity would need to drop to about 22.1¢/kWh from 23.28¢, or gas climb past $14.96 per Mcf from $14.21. A utility offering a lower heat pump rate can change this. Until then, no quote price makes a heat pump pay back against gas in Burlington; the case for one here rests on comfort, cooling, or replacing electric heat instead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Burlington heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. About $1,717 a year comes back this way, enough that the 5.8-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Burlington ranks in this dataset
Burlington lands at position 1557 out of 3206 cities on heating severity (coldest is 1), and 3169 out of 3206 by population size (biggest is 1). That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
What to do with this number in Burlington
Burlington, New Jersey is home to about 10,143 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Burlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Get quotes from local HVAC contractors before deciding.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page, the 3.13 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs, is documented in the methodology guide. Burlington's 17.8°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.