Broken Arrow, OK: the heat pump payback math
In Broken Arrow, the extra upfront cost technically comes back, just not before the equipment wears out. $3,500 is what Broken Arrow would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Broken Arrow's residents would see roughly $218 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 16.1 years. Broken Arrow's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
Why Broken Arrow's climate drives this number
Broken Arrow has a mild winter by US standards — 2849 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2308 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 6.1°F, against a record low of -0.9°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 2.85 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Broken Arrow needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station RICHARD LLOYD JONES JR APT, 11.3 miles from Broken Arrow — the closest one on record.
The month-to-month numbers for Broken Arrow
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 2,531 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $589 a year on electricity. Broken Arrow's gas rate of 13.99 per Mcf, applied to the 30 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $807 a year, against 13.10¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 62.1 years, leaving the 15-year total $237 behind.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Gas isn't universal in Broken Arrow — many houses run on electric heat already. Compared with baseboard or electric-furnace resistance heat, the numbers shift in the heat pump’s favor. Switching saves about $747 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 10.7 years.
Where Broken Arrow ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Broken Arrow's winter puts it at rank 1966 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 240 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the middle third for winter severity among the cities covered here.
Deciding what's next in Broken Arrow, OK
About 122,756 people live in Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
Reading further on this page's numbers
Every constant behind this page — the 2.85 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Broken Arrow's 6.1°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.