Should Billings switch to a heat pump?
In Billings, a heat pump would cost more to run each year than what you have now. Swap a failed furnace and AC for a heat pump rather than buying like-for-like, and the extra cost here runs $3,500 after a $2,000 federal tax credit. The heat pump would cost about $298 more a year to run than the furnace it replaces — a premium with no payback. There's no spin on that: Billings's numbers say wait.
Why Billings's climate drives this number
Billings has a cold winter that leans hard on heating equipment — 6165 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers add a moderate cooling load, at 750 cooling degree days. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: -18°F here (record low -26°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 2.3 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. A cold-climate unit is the right call in Billings — below 25°F design temperature, a standard heat pump leans hard on electric-resistance backup, which erases most of the savings. These numbers come from BILLINGS LOGAN INTERNATIONAL, the closest NOAA station, 1.4 miles out.
The month-to-month numbers for Billings
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 6,787 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $1,007 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 64 Mcf a year at 8.99 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $709 a year (electricity here runs 13.56¢/kWh). Buy it outright, not incrementally, and payback stretches to beyond the 15-year equipment life; over 15 years the net position sits $7,971 behind.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Plenty of homes in Billings heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Billings's answer improves. About $1,242 a year comes back this way, enough that the 6.4-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Billings against the rest of the country
Among 3206 cities, Billings's winter puts it at rank 166 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 247 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the coldest third of the dataset, where climate does most of the work behind this figure.
Deciding what's next in Billings, MT
About 121,483 people live in Billings, Montana, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Billings's figure comes from
Every constant behind this page — the 2.3 seasonal COP, the degree-day corrections, the equipment costs — is documented in the methodology guide. Billings's -18°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.