Bastrop, TX: the heat pump payback math
In Bastrop, the math is close enough that it comes down to how long you plan to stay. $3,500 is what Bastrop would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Bastrop's residents would see roughly $263 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 13.3 years. Whether that's worth it in Bastrop depends on how many years you expect to own the place.
The climate behind Bastrop's payback figure
Degree days tell the story here: Bastrop racks up 1105 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 2487 cooling degree days on the cooling side. Sizing runs off the design temperature, not the average day: 23°F here (record low 13.6°F), which works out to a seasonal COP of 3.25 for the cold-climate class of unit this climate calls for. Bastrop needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Climate figures trace to the nearest NOAA station, GIDDINGS-LEE COUNTY AIRPORT, 20.8 miles from Bastrop.
The month-to-month numbers for Bastrop
A 2000-square-foot house here would pull roughly 861 heating kilowatt-hours annually on top of cooling, totalling about $481 a year on electricity. That compares with roughly 12 Mcf a year of gas at Bastrop's 19.42 per-Mcf rate — about $744 a year — against a local electricity rate of 16.15¢/kWh. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 51.4 years, leaving the 15-year total $438 ahead.
If your home heats with electric baseboard instead of gas
Not every home in Bastrop has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Bastrop's answer improves. Switching saves about $491 a year here — a heat pump moving heat rather than generating it needs far less electricity than resistance coils — so the extra $8,000 spent up front comes back in about 16.3 years.
How Bastrop compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, Bastrop's winter puts it at rank 2855 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2691 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step for 12,720 people in Bastrop
About 12,720 people live in Bastrop, Texas, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here — the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Bastrop's 3.25 seasonal COP and payback figure. Bastrop's 23°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here — see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.