Should Arlington switch to a heat pump?
This one's marginal in Arlington: it only clears if you stay long enough. $3,500 is what Arlington would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again, once the $2,000 federal credit is applied. Arlington's residents would see roughly $348 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 10.1 years. It's a genuine toss-up here — Arlington's numbers don't point clearly either way.
Arlington's weather, in the numbers that matter
Arlington has a mild winter by US standards — 1697 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base — and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3228 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here — the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average — is 15.1°F, against a record low of 10.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.06 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Arlington needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station ARLINGTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, 3.1 miles from Arlington — the closest one on record.
The month-to-month numbers for Arlington
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,404 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $671 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 18 Mcf a year at 19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,019 a year (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase rather than against a like-for-like replacement, equipment payback runs about 38.8 years, for a 15-year net position $1,714 ahead.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Arlington has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Arlington's answer improves. About $698 a year comes back this way, enough that the 11.5-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Arlington ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Arlington comes in at 2583 for heating severity — 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset — and 50 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Arlington
Arlington, Texas is home to about 403,672 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Arlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Arlington's 3.06 seasonal COP and payback figure. Arlington's 15.1°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.