Heat Pump Payback in Arlington, TX
Should Arlington switch to a heat pump?
The payback math works in Arlington on paper, past the equipment's own working life. $5,500 is what Arlington would pay extra to go electric rather than replace the furnace and AC with the same again. Arlington's residents would see roughly $348 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 15.8 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Arlington.
Not the city you meant?
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Arlington. Look one up here.
Arlington's weather, in the numbers that matter
Arlington has a mild winter by US standards, 1697 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are severe enough that cooling can dominate the annual bill, at 3228 cooling degree days. The 99% winter design temperature here, the cold snap equipment must be sized for, not the seasonal average, is 15.1°F, and the coldest daily reading in the 2024 station record was 10.4°F. That puts the seasonal coefficient of performance at 3.06 for the recommended cold-climate unit. Mild on average, but the occasional cold snap is what sizes the equipment: at a 15.1°F design temperature Arlington falls just under the 25°F line where a standard heat pump starts leaning on resistance backup, so the model prices a cold-climate unit to be safe. Source: NOAA station Arlington Municipal Airport, 3.1 miles from Arlington, the closest one on record.
The yearly running costs in Arlington
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,404 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $671 a year. The gas furnace it replaces burns roughly 18 Mcf a year at $19.42 per Mcf here, for a running cost near $1,019 a year including the old AC (electricity here runs 16.15¢/kWh). Priced as a standalone purchase, with a working furnace ripped out early, payback would take longer than the 15-year equipment life. Measured against the like-for-like replacement instead, a household here ends 15 years $286 behind.
How sensitive Arlington's result is to prices
In Arlington the cooling savings outweigh the extra electricity for heating, so no plausible change in the electricity rate would make the old furnace and AC cheaper to run. A useful quote test for Arlington: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $3,480 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $2,436.
The other scenario: no gas furnace to begin with
Not every home in Arlington has gas service. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Arlington's answer improves. About $698 a year comes back this way, enough that the 14.3-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
Where Arlington ranks in this dataset
Ranked against the other 3206 cities covered, Arlington comes in at 2583 for heating severity, 1 would be the coldest place in the dataset, and 50 by population, where 1 is largest. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
What to do with this number in Arlington
Arlington, Texas is home to about 403,672 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Arlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Ask a local HVAC contractor for a quote before committing either way.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Arlington's 3.06 seasonal COP and payback figure. Arlington's 15.1°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.