Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Arlington, TN

Arlington technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $3,500 more up front here (already netting out a $2,000 tax credit). Arlington's residents would see roughly $140 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 25 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Arlington.

How cold Arlington actually gets

Degree days tell the story here: Arlington racks up 2515 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 2105 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 10.4°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here — the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day — with a record low of -0.4°F on file. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 2.95 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Arlington needs the cold-climate class of unit: past a 25°F design temperature a standard heat pump falls back on resistance backup often enough to eat the savings. Source: NOAA station MILLINGTON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, 13.4 miles from Arlington — the closest one on record.

The month-to-month numbers for Arlington

Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 2,159 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $548 a year. Arlington's gas rate of 11.84 per Mcf, applied to the 26 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts its running cost near $689 a year, against 13.87¢ per kWh for electricity. Looked at as a full purchase rather than an incremental one, payback here is roughly 96.3 years, leaving the 15-year total $1,398 behind.

Electric resistance heat in Arlington, compared

Gas isn't universal in Arlington — many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat — baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance — the case for switching gets stronger here. About $713 a year comes back this way, enough that the 11.2-year payback clears the $8,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.

How Arlington compares nationally

Among 3206 cities, Arlington's winter puts it at rank 2167 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2341 for population — 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.

Next step for 15,550 people in Arlington

Arlington, Tennessee is home to about 15,550 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system — this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Arlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.

Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.

More on how this number was built

Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Arlington's 2.95 seasonal COP and payback figure. Arlington's 10.4°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.