Heat Pump Payback in Arlington, TN
Heat pump vs. gas furnace in Arlington, TN
Arlington technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. Arlington's residents would see roughly $140 a year back in running costs, putting the payback around 39.2 years. That's a technicality, not a recommendation, for anyone actually living in Arlington.
Compare against another city
This runs the same numbers for 3206 US cities, not just Arlington. Look one up here.
How cold Arlington actually gets
Degree days tell the story here: Arlington racks up 2515 heating degree days each year (base 65°F), and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, with 2105 cooling degree days on the cooling side. 10.4°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of -0.4°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 2.95 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. Mild on average, but the occasional cold snap is what sizes the equipment: at a 10.4°F design temperature Arlington falls just under the 25°F line where a standard heat pump starts leaning on resistance backup, so the model prices a cold-climate unit to be safe. Source: NOAA station Millington Municipal Airport, 13.4 miles from Arlington, the closest one on record.
The yearly running costs in Arlington
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 2,159 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $548 a year. Arlington's gas rate of $11.84 per Mcf, applied to the 26 Mcf a year the furnace burns, puts the current furnace-and-AC running cost near $689 a year, against 13.87¢ per kWh for electricity. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $3,398 behind.
What would change Arlington's answer
Gas would only overtake the heat pump in Arlington if electricity rose past 25.3¢/kWh from 13.87¢, or gas fell under $6.49 per Mcf from $11.84. A useful quote test for Arlington: the heat pump is worth it within a decade if it costs less than $1,400 more than replacing the furnace and AC, and within 7 years if the gap is under $980.
Electric resistance heat in Arlington, compared
Gas isn't universal in Arlington, many houses run on electric heat already. Against electric-resistance heat, baseboard or an electric furnace, both 100% efficient but still just resistance, the case for switching gets stronger here. About $713 a year comes back this way, enough that the 14-year payback clears the $10,000 premium comfortably within the equipment's life.
How Arlington compares nationally
Among 3206 cities, Arlington's winter puts it at rank 2167 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 2341 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Arlington
Arlington, Tennessee is home to about 15,550 people, and the figures above are the same ones a local HVAC contractor uses to size and quote a system, this site doesn't guess where a real quote would land, it just tells you whether it's worth asking for one. In Arlington, nothing is lost by holding off until the current equipment genuinely fails.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
More on how this number was built
Nothing above is a black box: the methodology guide shows the full arithmetic behind Arlington's 2.95 seasonal COP and payback figure. Arlington's 10.4°F design temperature falls on the cold side of the 25°F cutoff the cold-climate unit guide walks through.