Heat Pump Payback in Apex, NC
Will a heat pump pay off in Apex, NC?
Apex technically pencils out, but only past the point the equipment would need replacing anyway. Against a like-for-like gas furnace and AC swap, going electric costs $5,500 more up front here. That premium is recovered through $258 of lower running costs every year, landing the payback clock at roughly 21.3 years. Apex's own numbers say this pencils out only in theory, not in practice.
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The climate behind Apex's payback figure
Apex has a mild winter by US standards, 2409 heating degree days a year against a 65°F base, and summers are hot enough that cooling matters as much as heating, at 2068 cooling degree days. 18°F is the figure equipment gets sized against here, the 99th-percentile cold snap, not an average day, with a low of 18°F in the 2024 station record. Worked through the model, that's a seasonal COP of 3.13 on the cold-climate unit fit for this climate. The average winter here is gentle, but sizing follows the cold snaps, and 18°F is below the 25°F point where a standard unit leans on resistance backup, so a cold-climate unit is what gets priced for Apex. Source: NOAA station Raleigh-Durham International, 12.7 miles from Apex, the closest one on record.
What it actually costs to run, year to year
Modelled on a typical 2000-square-foot house, the heat pump draws about 1,949 kWh a year to keep it warm, plus cooling, for a combined electric bill near $554 a year. That compares with roughly 25 Mcf a year of gas at Apex's $16.42 per-Mcf rate, about $812 a year with the old AC included, against a local electricity rate of 14.93¢/kWh. If the current system still worked and you replaced it anyway, the full cost would take longer than the 15-year equipment life to earn back; against buying a new furnace and AC regardless, the 15-year total lands $1,632 behind.
What would change Apex's answer
This result holds unless electricity climbs above 39.9¢/kWh (it is 14.93¢ now) or gas drops below $6.14 per Mcf (now $16.42); past either point, gas becomes the cheaper fuel in Apex. When quotes arrive, compare the heat pump price with a like-for-like furnace and AC replacement: at $258 a year saved, a difference under $1,806 pays back within 7 years here, and under $2,580 within 10.
Electric resistance heat in Apex, compared
Plenty of homes in Apex heat with electricity alone, no gas line involved. Swap the comparison to resistance heat instead of gas, and Apex's answer improves. The saving here runs about $757 a year, which recovers the extra $10,000 spent going electric in roughly 13.2 years.
Where Apex ranks in this dataset
Among 3206 cities, Apex's winter puts it at rank 2234 for severity, while its size puts it at rank 501 for population, 1 in both cases being the extreme. That's the mildest third of cities covered, where utility rates carry more of the answer than climate does.
Next step if you live in Apex
About 75,977 people live in Apex, North Carolina, and every number on this page is what a contractor would actually work from when quoting a system here, the point isn't to replace that quote, it's to tell you whether to bother asking for one. Here, there's no cost penalty to waiting until your current furnace or AC actually needs replacing.
Line up a few local HVAC quotes before you decide.
Where Apex's figure comes from
The methodology guide walks through exactly how Apex's 3.13 seasonal COP and the rest of this page's numbers get built. Apex's 18°F design temperature is below the 25°F line, which is why a cold-climate unit is the right call here, see what that changes in the cold-climate unit guide.